Fact: Avatar will not win best picture at the Oscars.

I am posting this because people are so sure that Avatar will win the oscar but me i am not convinced. The reason i think people are so sure that Avatar will win, in my view, is just because it won the best picture at the golden globes. Now allow me to say this: JUST BECAUSE A MOVIE WINS THE BEST PICTURE DOESN'T MEAN IT WILL WIN THE OSCAR. Allow me to point all of you to the facts. 
 
The 2008 winner of the best picture of the golden globes was Slumdog Millionaire . The Oscar Slumdog Millionaire.   
  
2007 GG: Atonement. Oscar: No Country for Old Men
2006 GG: Babel. Oscar: The Departed 
2005 GG: Brokeback Mountain. Oscar: Crash. (Crash wasn't even nominated for the Golden Globe) 
2004 GG: The Aviator. Oscar: Million Dollar Baby 
2003 GG: LOTR ROTK. Oscar: Same movie 
2002 GG: The Hours. Oscar: Chicago. (Again Chicago wasn't nominated for the Golden Globe) 
 
I can keep this list going but as you can see there is only two time that the Oscars and the Golden Globes gave the best picture to the same movie. Now i realize that the Academy is very unpredictable with their awards so they might give the Oscar to something crazy like Up (not that it doesn't deserve it. Its just that its an animated film I'm not sure that The Oscars would do that). So there are my thoughts.