Welcome Wagon Quest Stats

by trace

I'll be honest. I think this Welcome Wagon a good idea for a quest set, giving people a little motivation to be nice to newbies over time. Challenging the community to rush through it in a week? Not such a good idea, in my opinion.

I'm not here for commentary, though; rather, I'm rolling up with a bunch of stats. Consider it a Stats Sedan, if you will! I've even added a new arbitrary number to accompany the Arbitrary Estimation of Success, using a more pessimistic calculation that assumes quest completions will slow down every day.

Here's the final progress graph:

Final Progress for Welcome Wagon The gold bar was our 2,000 user goal, the bright red line was the average progress we needed to have a chance at succeeding (13.08 completions/hour), and the green line was our progress. The dashed orange line was the "Danger Zone" where this quest could have ended at the earliest (Friday, which technically could have been the end of the week), and the dark red line represented the pace we'd have had to maintain to succeed in such an event (19.05 completions/hour).

So, as you can see, no surprise. Failure. As of 3:05 AM EDT, the quest box hasn't been pulled, but it's as good as done, and there's not much of a need to track it any further.

Some final stats:

We needed 2,000 completions. We only got 493 by my final count. Although hindsight is 20/20, a 500-completion target would have made this a very interesting community quest indeed.
Based on yesterday's numbers, we needed a completion rate of at least 63.34 completions per hour to succeed in this final day.
Instead, we achieved a rate of 0.5 completions per hour, with a final overall average of 3.2 completions per hour.
To successfully complete this quest, we would need several thousand hours. Based on our recent completion rates, I would suspect 3,150 hours or so total. That's a little over a third of a year.
Not counting incomplete data from Lovin' Cup, Welcome Wagon had the slowest completion rate of any quest I've tracked thus far. Have a look!
Quest Comparison Graph as of Welcome Wagon Our latest quest is the red line, the really low and flat line below everything else. A miserable failure, unfortunately.

If you have any questions, criticisms, or requests regarding my stats, as always, feel free to ask!

*The Arbitrary Estimation of Success is based off of somewhat faulty formulas, and is subject to change drastically if the completion rate changes drastically from one day to the next.

**The Pessimist's Estimation is based off of an estimated daily decrease in completions, including a drastic estimated decrease between the first 24 hours and the first 48 hours. It is subject to change wildly if user completions drop off far more or less than expected on a daily basis.