Stalker Status Stats

by trace

Here's another strange set that the staff have all but admitted doesn't make for a good community quest. Still, it has created the strangest surge of conversations I've seen in quite some time. As forced as the discussion might be, I've talked to a few decently cool dudes who I wouldn't have had a conversation with otherwise. Then there's the whole profile views situation, and people discovering that Brock Lesnar's finisher is also a great way to complete that quest far too quickly.

It's all very strange. How about we step away from that stuff and discuss some stats?

Here's the final graph of our progress:

Final Progress for Stalker Status The gold bar at the top represents the 2,000 user goal. The bright red line is the average pace we needed to exceed to succeed, and the green line is the progress we made over this quest's duration. The dashed orange line is the beginning of the "danger zone," at which point the quest could have technically ended any day, as Friday could be considered the end of the week (and has been once in the past). The dark red line represents the accelerated progress we would have needed were the quest to have ended on Friday.

Not a strong finish, but completely within reasonable bound of estimates. Regardless, I made a new friend or two on the site with this quest, so no major complaints on my part. Here's hoping that the next quest set is either not a community quest or something the community can work together on with a more reasonable target. I could use a break from these 3 AM posts on the weekend! Yes, I know, I bring it upon myself. What of it?

Our final stats:

We needed 2,000 completions to succeed. We failed, and only attained 254 completions over the week.
Our final average was 1.9 completions per hour. We needed an average of over 14.87 completions per hour to be successful.
Funny enough, my ballpark estimate of 255 yesterday was closer to our final number than the Pessimist's Estimation of 244-247 completions. That statistic might begin turning into a sometimes feature, even if it does produce more realistic numbers than a straight-line estimate.
The Arbitrary Estimation of Success predicted 0% success of chance correctly all throughout the week, as if that was actually hard to predict by day 2.
The last quest, Welcome Wagon, had about another 18.5 hours before I stopped tracking it. However, at 134.5 hours in, it had 483 completions. That means we had slightly more than half of the completions Welcome Wagon did. ... SUCCESS! Here's a comparison graph of all the quests I've tracked thus far:
Quest Comparison Graph as of Stalker Status

It's getting a little crowded, isn't it? I'm going to have to deal with that matter before much longer. I'm running out of good color choices here!

If you have any questions, comments, or criticisms, feel free to ask or let me know! In this thread. Don't worry about my wall. It's been properly overwhelmed by now, thank you very much. (Though if you want to write a message on my wall, I'm determined to reply to most wall posts this week. Just know that it won't benefit me at all, since I've already completed this quest set thanks to the kindness of others)

*The Arbitrary Estimation of Success is based off of somewhat faulty formulas, and is subject to change drastically if the completion rate changes drastically from one day to the next.

**The Pessimist's Estimation is based off of an estimated daily decrease in completions, including a drastic estimated decrease between the first 24 hours and the first 48 hours. It is subject to change wildly if user completions drop off far more or less than expected on a daily basis.