Only a return to roots JRPG with WHM, BLM, knights, swords and shields with a medieval setting etc. could ignite enough nostalgia to sell 10M. I don't know what SE sees in these modern style RPGs but they're not going to make them the big money. Maybe Final Fantasy games won't make big money ever again, regardless of the content of the game.

Not sure, but I'll be a +1 at least.

depends on what lifespan could mean, 5 years, 10 years, 15 years... It will sell well even if it's a bad game or good game, the fanbase is still probably as big as elder scrolls fanbase(probably bigger and grow if it's a decent game) that will eat up the game. i'd say not 10 million in 5 years, within 10 years it's doable.

Based on what I've played of the demo, I don't think it stands a chance unless the game is considerably different that what the demo showed.

It'll have a gangbusters first couple of weeks because it's Final Fantasy and there are tons of people, particularly in Japan, who will buy it on no more than the name alone.

Beyond that, I just don't think the gameplay is there to bring in a larger audience. The combat was boring and overly simplistic and the camera they have in place will not work very well with the action style combat they seem to want to go for (it's way to close to the player. You have no rear or peripheral vision so you're constantly getting hit by things you can't see). The graphics also didn't wow me particularly. In fact, I'd say that in some ways it looks worse than FFXIII. An awful lot of framerate dips and jaggy edges for a game that's been in development for as long as it has. I thought the Noctis character was really, really uncomfortably deep in the Uncanny Valley too.

It's sorta ironic really. Squeenix has been saying that the old FF is dead and they needed to change to survive, but the changes they've made make the gameplay worse not better. I don't just say that as someone who likes the old-school turn-based combat either. If they want to make it more action-y, then fine, but you still need to make a good action game. What I played wasn't. They seem to want the flashy stylings of a Bayonetta, but forgot the pace, the control, or the depth.

I said this in another thread, but I repeat it here: I really think Squeenix needs to hand off the series to an entirely different team. I mean a completely clean break - different directors, producers, writers, sound guys, artists - the whole lot. The current group handling the series just feels like its got so much creative inbreeding going on that the series has ended up as the video game equivalent of Charles II.

I don't think it'll reach 10mil unless it blows everyone's socks off and reignites interest in the Final Fantasy brand on a massive scale. Not even FFX reached that quantity, and it was a good game delivered at the height of FF hype, instead of years after the company drove its fanbase into the dirt with FF13.

Not a snowball's chance in hell without a PC release and even then I just don't know. 10 million isn't an absurdly high number, but I'm definitely skeptical. The name just doesn't seem to carry as much weight as it once did.

That FF7 remake though? I'll bet anything it gets to 10 million easy.

Yeah, FF7 remake will do 10 million easy. It does way better on nostalgia sales, because people know they like Final Fantasy AND they know they like FF7.

With FFXV, people know they like Final Fantasy, but quite a few people know that they don't especially like the active time battle bullshit they've been doing in the past few entries, and FFXV is so removed from the series in its prime.

I hope to god that they don't actually need 10 million units and this is just embellished hype. Even vii hasn't done that lifetime (or has barely done) last I heard.

Don't get me wrong I love these games. Played virtually all of them since day 1. but this isn't the 90's anymore, western tastes have changed and the buzz around XV is a but pale shadow of the hype Vii had.

If they do need 10 million...then I fear this may really be the Final Final Fantasy.

No way. Even assuming XV is a goddamned masterpiece, I just don't think the franchise has the juice anymore. I'd even argue that Kingdom Hearts is the more crucial Square franchise, going forward, much as it pains me to say.

Witcher 3 sold more than 6 million copies in the first six weeks, and has now shipped nearly 10 million.

Witcher 3 Sells 6 Million Copies

Witcher 3 Ships Almost 10 Million Copies

There's no way XV will sell 10 million it'll be lucky to do halve that number, the writing is nowhere near as good as the Witcher 3 it's still too much of a JRPG to appeal to the broader western audience.

edit: For Reference, Final Fantasy VII has sold over 11 million

Depends on the length of the life cycle. Who knows what they'll do if it doesn't seem to hit the target. Maybe we'll get another FF 15-2 ,15-3 kind of thing + PC release later down the line just so that someone at Square can count up the numbers until it's higher than 10.

If we talk about a lifetime of 2-3 years, it won't sell 10M.

@thepanzini: Oh, cool! I'll update my OP but I doubt that changes much for FFXV's fate, as you said.

Honestly I doubt it. FF isn't really that much of a 'big name' compared to 5/10+ years ago and whilst 13 wasn't a failure or anything, it certainly tarnished the series' reputation for a LOT of fans.

My instant reaction is no, but between the marketing push and the eventual PC release (which will come)...might get fairly close.

It's hard to tell how much traction the brand still has. Lots of us are down on FF (self included more or less) but I'm surprise how much enthusiasm I still see around the interwebs. Of course if critics are less than favorable then it has no shot.

I liked the demo, the combat was not particularly fun until I got to the last boss, and that's when I started to see the depth a bit more. I think it's a very pretty game. I had a pretty good wow moment when you see a big flying dragon thing off in the distance, nice sense of scale. I don't know if it will sell 10m but I hope it does! It's the first time in a long time that I have actively been interested in a final fantasy product.

@thewildcard: The PC version isn't in development and won't be releasing that soon. XV is the first and only game to use the Luminous engine a PC port will be complicated Kingdoms Hearts 3 switched to Unreal Engine 4.

@thepanzini: Oh I'm not expecting it soon, but I do think it will come eventually, especially if sales aren't as strong they want them to be.

It's possible that it's a hype thing but I think it's more the fact that this game has been in development forever. Have to keep that in mind. If they're counting all of that, it has to be pricey. It was funny watching that PS3 Game Tapes and seeing 13 Versus get announced.

Very few games sell to 20% of the total install base I don't see FF15 doing that. Witcher 3 had big momentum from two great games, a lot of hype, and no ill will at all going into a empty quarter release. FF is going into September a relatively more competitive time, and for the love of god it has a 15 at the end, that might scare some people away.

It would have to be really good to pull in those numbers after how divisive FF XIII was.

Maybe if they put in a demo for KH3 and FF7 remake.

Wow they really set it up to fail then. It'll sell a lot at first because of the brand and hopeful fans, but I highly doubt it will have that kind of staying power. I really want to like this game and hope it's amazing, but my experience with the past couple games makes me feel like they just aren't made for me anymore. Ever since they started screwing with the combat after X I've been less and less interested.

They might be doing what more and more games publishers seem to have done lately: threaten to never deliver on fans' dream game if they don't buy whatever shit the publisher is trying to sell at that moment.

I just played the demo and man...this is not what I want to play...at all.

Oh for sure. But I'd hope they realize recouping all of that expense is incredibly unrealistic.

I don't know it's hard to say, I played the demo and hated it but i haven't enjoyed any of the final fantasy games since 12 but there is still a diehard fan base. Also it seems like (at least from the demo) they may appeal to the kingdom hearts crowd and kids so i don't know how well it will sell. Not to mention how big is the install base on consoles and how many of that base are into these types of games still?

I know i probably won't be getting it though.

@belowstupid I don't think witcher is a fare comparison, i believe 3 is the best selling in the series and it's a pretty hard rated M game so that limits the audience a lot more. Final Fantasy has the potential to appeal to a wide audience, but only if the game is good or at least gets a real good buzz going after release.

Except again the biggest selling game in the franchise is FFVII which has a distinctly more sci-fi bent to it. Honestly if you're going to go mainstream the opposite is true IMO. And if anything CAN do this it will be FFXV especially with the marketing push that it is going to get.

This.

Maybe. Square Enix is forking enough money to make it happen. And there is no AAA JRPG out there in the new consoles, and Square Enix and Final Fantasy are very popular trademarks. So maybe.

@jeust:spending money don't mean you gonna make that money.

Basically Squenix is basically putting all of its cards on the table, hoping that all the hype the game has received for the past 10 years will be enough. To do that, XV can't just be a good game. It has to revitalize not only the FF brand, but also Jrpgs presence in gaming in general. And honestly, I don't think that's going to happen.

Doubt it... unless PC release.

I actually kinda want this game to succeed, but goddamn that is a stupid high number and just seems to echo the same misguided financial planning SE has been known for since the Tomb Raider reboot with their impossible sales expectations. Like many others have already said, this game has to be amazing for it to even sniff 10mil.

thats 600 million bucks

It will hit 10mil. Maybe not at launch but it will get there. It's a Final Fantasy game.

Especially when everyone saying it won't sell well goes and gets a copy day one anyway.

It might get there in the really long run. With a PC port added in (even though that will cause more money needing to be synced in). I hope this game does well but the demo gameplay I've seen doesn't inspire hope.

Final Fantasy VII is the best selling game in the franchise and took two decades across over half a dozen platforms to break ten million. No.

I'm already seeing a lot of people who have played it talk about bad combat and bad framerate. I think those alone will keep it from reaching those numbers.

I'm doubtful. It's hard enough for games to sell a couple million as is. Even with a PC version, I'm not confident it could get anywhere close.

According to Wikipedia, the best selling PS4 game only sold 2.1 million copies (Killzone: Shadow Fall - a launch title), and the best selling Xbox game only sold 1.9 million copies (Dead Rising 3 - also a launch title).

Hell, only five games on the Xbox 360 ever got pass 10 million (Kinect Adventures, GTA5, Halo 3, Minecraft, and CoD: Black Ops), and only TWO for the PS3 ever got pass 10 million (GTA5, and Gran Turismo 5).

Unless if this is the second coming of Jesus, there is no way this is getting pass 10 million sales.

Edit: Looking through these lists, the only SquareEnix game to ever make it to 10 million is FF7 (according to wiki it's 9.72 million, but close enough), and that came out nearly two decades ago. So I guess if FF15 is considered a massive success and enters cult status, it may one day too hit 10 million sales in two decades.

I'm glad Fabula Nova Crystallis taught them not to be overly ambitious with unproven projects.

It's coming out on both of those platforms, plus PC eventually. They are pushing this HARD. Also again this is lifetime, not like first week or something. Even FFXIII, for as hated as that game is, sold around 10 million across those games.

The hatred for XIII is really overblown. It's just the first FF game to come out when the Internet had realized it's potential to shit all over everything and ruin anything people liked. XIII basically follows the formula of X but does it much, much better.

I'll have you know, I fully intend to be simultaneously playing at least 100 copies of "FFXV HD-er Re:Master of Memories" on my PS4.5's, and that's not even counting the cashola they'll be getting from the gallons of Carbuncle flavour e-liquid I'll be vaping.

Obviously it's a long game but I see no reason why other games with less history can hit those numbers and this can't. Western fan's love of this series hasn't waned as much as GB seems to think.

At the very least, what else is coming out at the same time with this pedigree and looks this pretty? There's an appetite for SOMETHING big and showy to come out on these consoles this year.

Maybe they'll do like they did with the previous one. Crank out another one based largely on the same thing. Depending on how they look at it, that might still fall under the same game seeing as they can reuse so much.
That wild speculation on my end. Cause 10 million seems like a very generous projection.

Depends on a lot of things. How well it reviews, if it's launchs in a poor state, is there another game getting released around the same time that might get in its way. It might reach that in lifetime sales, but I doubt it will be within the first year

I think they said no XV-2 this time and they have others big stuff to do like ff7R and kh3