@a_e_martin: I wouldn't count on that leak from months ago being entirely accurate. Much of the information in there has turned out to be only somewhat true. House of wolves ended up having 5 story missions, despite the leak saying it would have 3. The leak also said house of wolves would have a raid, but instead it had a new end game activity, Prison of Elders. It also said this fall expansion would be called "Comet: Plague of Darkness."
I'm not expecting it to be radically different, but I could see there being 15 or more story missions and maybe even a new "arena" like Prison of Elders to accompany the new raid. Remember, the photo that info came from was taken almost a year ago, things happen in development, and if there's one thing House of Wolves has shown it's that Bungie is certainly trying to take feedback and criticism into account for the game's post release content. Things have most certainly changed since that photo was taken.
However, let's say for a second the leak was 100% accurate. I still would probably be okay spending $40 on that. Even looking only at House of Wolves, which had a fair bit more content than Dark Below, that was 5 story missions, 1 strike, 3 multiplayer maps (4 on Playstation), Prison of Elders, Trials of Orisis, and a bunch of new weapons and armor for $20. Some people didn't like that value, I thought it was pretty good compared to the amount of content and price of other FPS DLC.
If The Taken King includes exactly what that leaked photo suggested, we're looking at more than twice as many story missions, three times as many strikes, twice as many multiplayer maps, a new raid, 3 new subclasses, a new explorable area, a new XP level cap (as opposed to a light increase), and new weapons and armor. That's much more than twice as much content as the other DLCs for twice the price. As someone deep into Destiny, I'd be happy to pay $40 for that much new stuff, but I can certainly see how someone not as hooked on the endgame and PVP might not see it as a good value.
For the record, when I first saw that leaked photo several months ago I immediately assumed the big expansion would be $40, so the fact that anyone is surprised is kind of puzzling to me.
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