Can anyone think of a first party wii u game that you don't think will get ported to switch? The only ones I can think of would be mario maker and smash (in that they will make sequals rather than port). But I feel like every other wii u game has a <70% of being ported at some point.

All of them

I think only a few games will get the Switch upgrade like Mario Kart is.

They're sure as fuck not going to go to the effort of doing any kind of reissue of niche single player stuff like Pikmin 3 or Paper Mario: Color Splash.

Probably all that haven't already been announced. Mario Kart is just there to fill out the first year lineup, and I feel like if there were gonna be any more ports (as opposed to sequels), they'd already be known and be coming out this year.

The two you named are the exact two I expect will definitely be ported.

Other than Mario Maker, Smash and Mario Kart I can't see them bothering with anything else that came out on the WiiU.

I think this depends to a large degree on what kind of sales numbers the Switch does. If it sells decently but is not a blockbuster I think people above are correct, there will be relatively few ports. If it takes off and does Wii numbers there will be a lot more. Remember that the Wii got a bunch of stuff like New Control Pikmin and Metroid Prime Trilogy just because there was a huge player base buying up software.

There are definitely a bunch of Wii U games that would make a lot of sense to port to Switch, but I'll bet Nintendo waits to see how much profit there is to be made by doing so.

I guess I don't agree with everyone here. There are gonna be holes in the Switch release schedule over the next few years... Porting games like DKC Tropical Freeze and Bayonetta 2 would be easy to do and would fill out the Switch library nicely.

I have my fingers crossed for 3D World and Bayonetta 2.

Would it? Certainly easier than porting over something like the Wonderful 101 or Starfox Zero that uses extensive gamepad interaction, but the Switch runs on a totally different architecture from the Wii U. It's not like porting something from Gamecube up to Wii, where the systems are so similar that only minor changes need to be made.

Tools for porting are better now than they were 10 years ago but I would guess it is still a pretty major programming job, especially since Switch is not THAT much more powerful than Wii U, so you don't even get the benefit of being able to make up for sloppier programming with additional horsepower.

Now, porting is obviously much easier than making a game from scratch, since you don't need to generate new art assets or game design or any of that stuff, but it's still a significant investment of resources. If the Switch audience gets big that still seems worth it. Wii U only sold 13 million units, so there could be a large market that has never had a chance to play any of these games. But if the Switch audience is just the core Wii U audience then the cost of doing the work to move the software over may be much higher than the marginal sales benefits of offering people a slightly new version of a game they have already played.

I know it'll never happen due to all of the map controls on the gamepad, but I'd love to see Xenoblade Chronicles X ported over. I'd like to have a chance to replay that game without dealing with re-downloading all of the dlc performance pack nonsense.

A smash bros port would also be nice to hold me over until a new Switch Smash game. That and Mario kart were the only things I was really using my Wii U for anymore, so I could retire the device if Smash came over to the new system.

Smash is rumored and extremely likely. Announced at E3 and out in August/September seems like the move to me, though it's Nintendo so who knows.

I would love to see Xenoblade Chronicles X but that seems less likely. On the one hand there is already an announced "Xeno" RPG for Switch so it does seem like it is courting that audience, on the other hand I think it would be a pain to port over. I think this is one of those games where the size of Switch's audience counts. If there are 30 million people with this console by the end of 2018 then it may make sense to bring that game over to try and sell to a new audience.

I think Mario Maker is also extremely likely, even moreso since it has been confirmed that not all games have to work in all modes.

even if Bayonetta 2 came to try Switch , im not sure I'd have time to play it.