Who's Goning to Win Next-Gen?

While Xbox definitly looks like the more enticing option from my vantage point, i look at my european country where the word 'playstation' has become a verb that's being used by non-gamers that think it's a synonym for 'playing games'. I see how playstation sponsors the Champions League and released commercials for their big games. I just don't think that the Xbox hardware can make a meaningful dent from out of nowhere without big exclusives on their own. Last time around they straight up waited a year before they released the Xbox One here. That's how much of a Sony stronghold we have here.

At the same time, i do think that Microsoft will do way better than ever before here and are now able to extract money from the amount of PC gamers we have.

Probably MS in terms of quality. They have a better offering and game pass is amazing

Sony have the cult of Sony though, which is strong

Depends on how we define "winning." In terms of boxes sold and "hearts and minds," I'd guess Sony. In terms of profit, I think Microsoft's pivot to the games branch being services-focused instead of hardware-focused and embracing PC, streaming and other alternate platforms is going to bring in a ridiculous amount of cash over the course of this generation.

I think it’s going to fundamentally not matter next gen who “wins”. Cross play will become more entrenched, so platform choice will matter less for online, third parties will continue to release games everywhere, and so it only matters what exclusives you prefer. It’s never been a better time to play video games.

PS5 is going to beat Xbox Series X and S. By that standard Sony is going to win the generation. They have the momentum, the exclusives, and a number of markets where MS just cannot compete.

It may not matter, though, because MS is clearly swinging bigger with Gamepass and Xcloud. Microsoft wants to win streaming/subscription and they have a real chance. Microsoft doesn't seem that interested in being a hardware company and at this point seems to view Xbox as a necessary step to accomplishing their streaming/subscription plans (plus keeping players in their ecosystem.)

It's quite possible that Playstation will win this generation but Microsoft will come out with the more profitable business and a better path forward.

It's going to be an interesting generation for a lot of reasons.

Game subscription services are gonna win the generation. not right out of the gate, but it’s gonna go that route. expect to see a lot of games and studios start to get locked behind those agreements

Option 3: PC. They get access to xbox exclusives, gamepass and some Sony exclusives. But this is less Playstation vs Xbox and more Playstation vs Gamepass. And gamepass is a clear winner.

Sony is going to sell more consoles globally. They have better brand value and more people in the ecosystem already. Unless they fuck up somehow, I doubt most of those users would switch since they probably have friends and a big library on Playstation.

But Microsoft is going to do a lot better than last gen and if Gamepass takes off and is a success that enough millions are willing to pay for monthly, then they might win the long game.

At this point I don't really care to be honest. They will both do their thing and both will get plenty of sales. I sincerely doubt either will "win" to such a degree that it would seriously harm the competition, so the only people who have anything to gain from one being recognized as the "winner" is the stockholders. As a consumer it's largely irrelevant to me.

this is a false dichotomy, so let me offer a non-answer: the suits. the suits always win.

The personal computer.

I'm going to win next generation, I've already started fighting toddlers in parks so I'm well on my way to winning the next generation.

It depends on your metric for success. By most consoles sold? Sony, by up to 2:1 again. They are too entrenched in Japan and Europe to be upended in just one generation.

Microsoft can win in two ways. First, if by the end of the generation the person jumping up and down pointing to console unit sales gets dismissed as an out-of-date crank. "Dude, no one pays any attention to that anymore. Its all about the services bro!". Microsoft has a significant head start with Game Pass. For PSNow to catch up will take years.

Second, suppose by the end of the generation XCloud/GamePass has 50m subscribers and "PSCloud"/PSNow has 100m (mirroring unit sales this gen).

But!

Sony's service runs in whole or in part on Azure. Does it make any sense to say that Microsoft lost? When they are effectively getting a cut of every PSCloud subscription?

Everybody.

Everybody is going to win.

I have a PC and Gamepass. I'm going to win. Sony fans have all the exclusives. They're going to win. Xbox guys are going to have the convenience of an Xbox and Gamepass. They're going to win. Nintendo fans have ridiculously high quality games coming from the developer of the console itself. They're going to win.

Most significantly, though, the shareholders that fund these companies and the executives that run them are going to win because video games have become the most profitable entertainment industry out there and there's a lot of really good ones available right now for a shockingly low price.

There is no winner, just like last generation.

It's too early to predict, Microsoft currently has an advantage with game pass being great and with purchase of Zenimax.
Sony better have a great lineup of exclusives and something to counter game pass.

There is no "winning". That whole idea is based around creating a rabid, loyal fan base that will open their wallets easier.

So... I guess the answer is the shareholders and c-level executives. Like always.

I still don't know how well MS do in Japan and Europe compared to Sony, and honestly the recent hubbub over the Zenimax buyout might be overblown. Yes, it's a large boon to MicroSoft but we'll see in 7 years when the next Elder Scrolls comes out.

I don't know about who's going to win but I know who the losers are going to be: the gamers, who are going to be even more connected to restrictive platforms and become willing party to expose more of their personal info to the likes of Microsoft and Sony and overall pay more for less quality and end up owning nothing.

The playstation brand is so much stronger than xbox I cant see it being anything other than playstation again

I suspect that Sony will sell more consoles in the next 5 years, but if Microsoft will have more subscribers for their services.

Around 30 C-suite executives with names like 'Mark' and 'Steve' who now wear vintage gaming T-shirts under a blazer and once retweeted a charity called 'Game Devs 4 The Children' after someone asked why their names were in the Panama Papers.

Confidently saying it's Sony. :)

I don't know if Sony's brand is ever that strong. The PS2 could not save them from the 360 either.

Different metrics of 'winner' might have different answers.

Sell the most games for its NEW console this gen? Sony. They are they ones where you have to buy them, so they will sell the most in all likelihood.

Top Selling single game (most units sold-through) going forward gen? Nintendo? Even if they don't make a new system for years they will probably sell the most units of "one of" their games in this time period.

Sell most system worldwide this gen? Sony will sell more PS5 & PS5 Pros. Even Phil Spencer think this is likely!

Overall Profitability of the "game division"? Xbox. Physicals and digitals game sales, Game Pass, and X Cloud will seemingly see the most profit on SEC filing papers....IF you do not put them $7.5 billion in the hole from the start. The Bethesda purchase is a huge expenditure. Over the last 20 years, Sony has bought 20 development studios for about 1/5 the amount. The Bethesda's publishing and studios deal would have erase Xbox profits, if they put them in that columns of the spreadsheet, which they won't. However, the Microsoft Corp investors will want to see something from this purchase.

The most positive press and the most positive gamer discussion? Unknown. Ask me in six months.

Who's going to win "Next-Gen"? It won't be consumers, in the long run.

Anyone who thinks Microsoft gobbling up Bethesda is going to reinvigorate the "console war" or turn back the clock to the glory of the 360 / PS3 era. are fooling themselves.

The global tech giants / monopolists are getting into video games via streaming (e.g. Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, etc.) and they're going to outspend each other to consolidate / monopolize the 3rd party developer market, because software / IP is THE most valuable commodity, not selling consoles or boxes.

As Microsoft has shown, they can and will easily outspend Sony and Nintendo to crush them, drive them out of the market; turn them into a "Sega."

The future is gonna be a shitshow of multiple streaming service monopolies churning out fast'n quick AA / B-tier games.

The fantasy Microsoft is selling you is based off of current video game output, in a model based upon a free and open third market. MS is happy to sell the delusion that Game Pass will continue to deliver high quality content for next to nothing, and quickly, forever and ever.

What gamers want / the delusion they're being sold: Disney-Marvel MCU movies.

What MS / Game Pass and other streaming services will deliver in the future: The CW.

Microsoft is already on record as saying they'll continue to "grow inorganically" (i.e. buy up more large publishers and studios to make them exclusive). And idiot gamers are cheering like this market consolidation, this monopolisation is a good thing. SMH

Oh! And if you think "good guy" / monopolist Microsoft isn't gonna rob people blind with ads, microtransactions, and continually raise the price of Game Pass (just like Netflix and Hulu and every other streaming service) in the future, when you've got no other options in the market, y'all are marks.

@nameredacted: People keep pointing to price increases at Netflix (can’t speak to Hulu, I’m not American) as if it’s some sort of gotcha. But I’ve been a Netflix subscriber for 10 years now and while the monthly price has gone up a few times over the years, I’m still paying less monthly than the price of a single movie DVD. Not even a Blu Ray, a literal 480p DVD. It’s still a fantastic deal that I happily pay for each month. Similarly, the two years I’ve been a Game Pass subscriber have been the lowest game spend years I’ve had in my adult life. Maybe the model doesn’t work for you, but I’m hardly a “mark” for benefitting from it.

Voted Sony. It's just about the exclusives for me. God of War, Horizon, Naughty Dog games, etc. What does MS have? I don't care about Halo. And happily, most of their other exclusives I was interested in, like Ori, are coming to other systems. Game pass sounds nice, but personally I go for long spans without playing anything at all besides Switch, so I'd rather just buy the things I want than pay for a subscription. This is all my opinion, but I assume others feel similarly.

I'm looking into getting a 3080 soon and probably getting a PS5 solely for Demon's Souls, GoW, and Horizon, after which I will sell it or give it to a sibling.

Fuck if I know. I'll just watch from the sidelines with my big backlog of Switch and PS4 games while getting more mileage out of my 2080 Ti.

I'll get both systems sooner or later like I always do. When it comes to the industry, I think MS will close the gap with Sony due to the Bethesda move, having the stronger console, Game Pass, and their ecosystem including PC and mobile. Their only problem is that the killer exclusives are a year plus away, but between Hellblade, Fable, Halo, Avowed, Elder Scrolls, Doom, etc. they will have AAA exclusives that deliver. They pretty much have shooters, WRPGs, and racers on lock. Sony is much better at action adventure games and story driven games.

I'll still stick with Sony. Gamepass isn't much of a benefit when you're busy with life. :(

Companies, as always.

I'll buy the PS5 when I'm 100% sure it won't melt while I'm using it.

If the next Doom/Wolfenstein games are microsoft exclusives, I'll just get a pc.

As someone who got a preorder in for both and is very excited for them both. Like has been mentioned before this doesn't actually feel like the fight any more. In some ways Sony has already lost because Microsoft has moved onto their services battle and is now looking at Amazon, Google, and other streaming services. I'm sure they'd still like to sell more boxes than Sony, but at this point it feels like that's definitely not the main focus of their games business any longer.

Not to say I'm stoked about that, as much as I like Gamepass and think it's a great value I also don't know about the Netflix model being pushed as hard as it has been, but that's the way we're going I guess.

I don’t think anyone is going to ‘win’ in the traditional sense, but I think both Sony and Microsoft will find success in different ways. This is the first time I feel like all the companies are in fairly healthy positions going into a new generation.

In terms of hardware sales, PlayStation 5 is most definitely going to outsell the Xbox Series S/X. The PlayStation brand is just way more recognizable and powerful globally than the Xbox Brand, particularly in across the world in places like Asia, Middle East and most of Europe. In North America, specifically the United States, it’ll be much closer between both platforms than this current cycle.

I think Sony will benefit a lot from high software sales from their first party games. It’s also likely that Xbox Game Pass is going to/has started to make Sony re-think their strategy somewhat, but what they’re doing has been successful so they’ll continue down that path for now. I don’t think Sony will make a direct Xbox Game Pass competitor, because their games actually sell 10-15 million copies, so they don’t really need to at this time. However, they’re definitely acknowledging it and the PlayStation Plus Collection is a direct response of what Microsoft is doing with Xbox Game Pass.

For Microsoft, I see them selling more hardware than this cycle in the United States, Canada, UK and Australia. Elsewhere, I don‘t see much changing, because I don’t see them gaining more ground globally. However, if we’re talking about Xbox Game Pass, I think that will continue to grow and attract a larger number of subscribers in the upcoming years. It’s hard to say if it’ll reach the number of subscribers to be a dominant force in the industry like a Netflix, so we’ll see.

As of now, I don’t think Microsoft has the high quality level of first party output to be like an HBO of streaming services — I see Xbox Game Pass as a Netflix type of service for gaming, where 80% of the content is mediocre, 10% of the content is good and 10% of the content is amazing. With the Bethesda acquisitions and their other studios starting to make games in house, we’ll see if that changes a few years down the road.

Xbox Game Pass is big value for a lot of people, but I think the number of people willing to hold multiple subscription based services is higher in North America than elsewhere in the world, so I don’t really see it growing outside of the markets I mentioned above, but they might not need to, they’ll probably be more successful this generation and health than the current one, with Xbox Game Pass alone. I’m also anticipating the price of Xbox Game Pass to go up in a few years once they get a steady number of subscribers.

Microsoft has no footing in Japan so Sony will win.

We do. The PS5 and the XBSX are both really solid options for next gen machines, Gamepass is pretty dope, Sony's plans sound pretty dope, I don't really see a reason to play into the old console wars bullshit. Everyone has a viable way to play video games, that's the important part.